Rain…and then more rain

From the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Real-Time Weather Data website click here for the Slidell, Louisiana radar loop from  9PM Friday (02Z 23 Jun) to 9AM Saturday (14Z 24 Jun).

Here in Picayune, almost every shower that came through was a heavy downpour. These showers added over three inches to the 6+ inches we had accumulated since Tropical Storm Cindy started soaking us on Tuesday. So, now our grand total is over nine inches.

Yesterday’s numerical model guidance missed this latest round of rain, and therefore forecasters pretty much missed it also. Finally, last night the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) realized that we were at risk for getting more heavy rain, and issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion at 9:35 PM CDT saying so.

At 4:00 AM this morning, the WPC issued another Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion raising the alarm for our area and admitting, “THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z SPC WRF AND 07Z HRRR,HAS COMPLETELY MISSED OUT ON THIS ACTIVITY OR IS WAY TOO SLOW IN THEIR FORWARD PROGRESSION.”

But, why should those of us around Picayune complain about a mere 9-10 inches? Looks like the “winner” for most rainfall since all this began with Cindy is a strip from Ocean Springs northward with 17+ inches. In fact, some CoCoRaHs observers in Jackson County have recorded even more, with the grand prize winner getting 20.21 inches!

The NWS in Slidell is giving us an 80 percent chance of rain today, but that may be a little too wet. As of noon the radar is very quiet, and the mesoscale HRRR model isn’t predicting much for this afternoon (although, admittedly, it didn’t do well with last night’s system). Maybe the storms early this morning stabilized the atmosphere enough to give us a break.

But…the HRRR does show more showers moving into south Mississippi early this evening and tonight.

The good news? MUCH drier air is on the way, and the models are showing it getting to south Mississippi Sunday night and hanging around until at least Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. Hurray.

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